Iran, Iraq, North Korea, China, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Syria, Turkey, Libya, Sudan, Burma, Zimbabwe, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Equatorial Guinea, Cuba, Venezuela (Axis) (UPDATE: Russia too… They found out a bit late. But now we’ve got the North making nuclear weapons and Kim Jong Il threatening everyone, it’s time to put an end to this regime. The NASA Apollo Saturn 5 is an insta-classic. So, war may not be the answer, but neither is allowing evil people to stay in power. Found inside – Page 3857... is not only unsuited to the sorts of wars that are most likely in the future , but that it is also of limited value for a war like World War II . New Saturn 5. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. Cyber warfare will take the form of a devastating weapon of the future battlefield which will be integrated in the ‘War fighting Doctrines’ of nations across the world. The Good: No more worrying about Iran nuking anyone and much less aid to terrorists for other conflicts. Keep those Iraq War notes handy: Small wars, not great power battles, still the most likely future fight. That doesn't mean we're living in an era of peace. China. Found inside – Page 37Most experts agree that an accidental war is most likely to start during a crisis. Concludes with a listing of resources and ongoing research studies ... When in future new technologies become possible, I do think the way humans will use it would still be for the same purposes. 1: India and Pakistan. Where will these future conflicts be fought? The European great powers hastened their decline by fighting self-destructive wars, and the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, Venezuela’s … In fact, history offers two crucial insights for those speculating as to where a future great power conflict will break out: First, the spark that ignites a conflict almost always flares far from the scene where major events are expected. When China's "Bamboo Curtain" finally came down and Beijing opened up its economy to the developed world, the expectation was that a modernized, technologically advanced China would herald the development of a more open democratic society, one in which civil liberties would be protected and expanded, where the reach of government would be diminished and where a more open free enterprise system would be allowed to flourish free from government intervention or co… Today, military planners focus intensely on countering Russian revanchism in Europe and containing Chinese expansionism in Asia. The Cold War is the most recent and relevant example — and led to a period when great-power involvement led to the emergence of insurgency as the primary mode of intrastate war. In the UK in 2015, 23% of the general public believed the apocalypse was likely to occur in their lifetime, compared to 10% of experts from the Global Challenges Foundation. The Geopolitical Powderkegs Most Likely … The list of U.S. adversaries is likely to remain fixed, but the list of U.S. allies is likely to change. SCS, the most possible case is US Navy having direct conflict with Chinese Navy. This essay is the first in the series. Few at the time suspected that two bullets fired in a region far from the great concerns of the day would within six weeks ignite a conflagration that would destroy Europe’s “Old Order”  and extinguish the lives of ten million soldiers. Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience. J., a loyal MR reader, asked me for a post on “proliferation and separately nuclear exchange (war).”. The USSR screwed up this country and they are to blame. But now that it’s opened, refugees will exit to China and the South, which will create challenges, as well. Great-power competition with China will likely follow this historical pattern, if … Early efforts to conduct space warfare were directed at space-to-space warfare, as ground-to-space systems were considered to be too slow and too isolated by Earth's atmosphere and gravity to be effective at the time. The Pardee RAND Graduate School (PRGS.edu) is the largest public policy Ph.D. program in the nation and the only program based at an independent public policy research organization—the RAND Corporation. At a Global Catastrophic Risk Conference hosted by the University of Oxford, academics predicted that there is 1% chance of nuclear extinction risk in the 21 st century. With Lebanon as a war-zone again, the next chapter of Israel vs. Hezbollah won’t be as pretty as the first. (B) Fraction of simulated conflict time series that contain more large wars (x ≥ x0.75) than observed in the past or than expected in the future relative to a linear extrapolation of the postwar tend. Balancing Force Modernization and the Most Likely Future Wars We’ll be Fighting. For example, now with the Internet most people use it still for watching ''kitten videos'' metaphorically speaking. This report is the overview in a series that seeks to answer these questions about the future of warfare in 2030. by Raphael S. Cohen, Nathan Chandler, Shira Efron, Bryan Frederick, Eugeniu Han, Kurt Klein, Forrest E. Morgan, Ashley L. Rhoades, Howard J. Shatz, Yuliya Shokh. In the Seven Years’ War, vast resources were employed in the secondary theaters of India and the Americas. Speed kills. On the eve of World War I, for example, few suspected that the assassination of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo would ignite a global conflagration. The growth in global population follows a flat line for most of human history and then, at the turn of the industrial revolution, the line shifts to nearly vertical – like a hockey stick – as the population explodes. By International Affairs Analyst Stan Grant. China, officially the People's Republic of China, is a sovereign state in East Asia. The Bad: Mass death and Pakistan will be obliterated. The only thing scarier than Pakistan and India going toe to toe would be China and the US doing the same. Protesters march during a flash mob protest in Hong Kong, on Friday, Oct. 11, 2019. The Next 10 Countries: The World's Most Likely New Nations. Concepts range from limited use of nuclear weapons, to destruction of the planet. Sign up to get updates about new releases and event invitations. This report is the overview in a series that draws on a wide variety of data sets, secondary sources, and an extensive set of interviews in eight countries around the globe to answer these questions. Who will the United States fight against and who will fight with it? In late May 1754, a 22-year-old George Washington, with a small group of British soldiers and native warriors, encountered and massacred a party of French soldiers in the wilderness of the Ohio Valley. Found inside – Page 354It is not only in the East that the probable causes of international war have ... The causes of war in the future are likely to be national distrusts, ... Similarly, larger shares of most key demographic groups forecast a less robust rather than a more vigorous economy in 2050. In Europe, traditional U.S. allies' will and capacity to exert force, particularly overseas, will likely decline. The worst-case scenario for America's immediate future. C) neighboring countries tend to absorb most refugees from war-torn areas. Moreover, the loss of any or all of them did not present either power with an existential threat. The U.S. will eventually have to pull out, and there is about a trillion dollars worth of mineral buried in Afghanistan, a country that doesn’t have a mining culture. Especially if… China. 1960s. How is this good? Escaping Thucydides’s Trap is not just a theoretical possibility. Found insideThe most likely trigger for war will be misunderstandings that arise from cognitive dissonance and confirmation bias (the Stone Age legacy that inheres in ... Given an ultimatum like Bush gave to Hussein, Ahmadinejad opts for bombs to fall on Iran’s government offices, air-force bases and nuclear labs. 2. They are won when one side’s military force is so wrecked that it can no longer prosecute the war and its homeland is in grave danger. The Good: Though the bad guy will win, remember that this time it’s over minerals (and the heroin trade) instead of harboring Al Qaeda. Last fall, the latest war game was based on a Chinese biological-weapon attack that swept through US bases and warships in the Indo-Pacific region more than a decade in the future, Yahoo News said. Sideshows will, unfortunately, remain inevitable, as policy makers will be driven by an urgent need to seek out and explore less costly shortcuts to victory. Proceedings recently asked several frequent contributors how the next conflict might start. The drug cartel issue in Mexico is destroying the country. In the Peloponnesian War, Athens exhausted itself because of its ill-advised Syracuse expedition. All branches of the military will need to enhance their information warfare capabilities, especially for gray-zone operations. This war is anticipated and planned for by military and civil authorities, and explored in fiction in many countries. As a conflict method that has survived and evolved through several millennia to flourish in the modern information age, terrorism continues to adapt to meet the challenges of emerging forms of conflict, and exploit developments in technology and society. This third essay presents an alternative scenario to the first in the series. Found inside – Page 70“Each age must have its own theory of war, or at least sooner or later ... The forms of the deep strategy will most likely reach their full scope in the ... Both sides lay claim to Kashmir, a region in the North. Analysis: Such civil war scenarios are most likely to occur primarily in: Democrat-controlled states Forget about the Taliban, terrorism, ‘Death to America,’ and the Taliban. Posted Sat 20 … Today, military planners focus intensely on countering Russian revanchism in Europe and containing Chinese expansionism in Asia. Without spending a lot of money, US will lose. Found inside – Page 68... that have been made in the development of aircraft and guided missiles make surprise through the air the most likely method of attack in any future war. If recent history is a guide to the future, the next major combat operation will likely occur in either the Middle East or the Balkans. Kurdish separatists gain power and the new ‘bad’ Iraq invades, unleashing the same type of hell that Saddam put these people through. The war, however, was won as a consequence of the titanic land battles fought in Central Europe and by the destruction of the French fleet at Quiberon Bay, within sight of France’s coast. They also presents a direct extinction risk. Using Statistics to Predict the Next World War It's been 70 years since the last major war. By Admiral James A. Winnefeld, U.S. Navy (Retired), and Michael J. Morell. The joint force will likely face at least four types of conflict, each requiring a somewhat different suite of capabilities, but the U.S. ability to resource such a diverse force will likely decline. With the current Political Division in our nation I can not rule out a Civil War in America as our most likely war we can see. That’s all. China, officially the People's Republic of China, is a sovereign state in East Asia. We’ll sum up the problems between India and Pakistan in one word: Kashmir. Found inside – Page 14The causes of war in the future are likely to be national distrusts , dislikes , and ... among the Western peoples the most probable future causes of war ... RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. Certainty is good. Similarly, a war pitting Russia against NATO may be sparked in Syria, Libya, the Baltics, or any number of other hot-spots, but it will be decided on Central Europe’s oft-used battlefields and in the Atlantic approaches. Most of all, this exercise is about making a future prediction, not a World War 2014, which means there’s a lot more than present military proportions to consider. In turn brilliant and infuriating, this challenge to our thinking and planning current and future military encounters is one of the most important books on war we are likely to read in our lifetime. Just as wars over oil played a major role in 20th-century history, a new book makes a convincing case that many 21st century conflicts will be fought over water. : The World’s Foremost Military Historians Imagine What Might Have Been, Five Unfought Wars That Would Have Changed Everything. This is a book about strategy and war fighting. So what wars actually could happen in the new future? Download the Brief THE ISSUE The United States faces a growing terrorism problem that will likely worsen over the next year. The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. The Victor: The warlords/drug traffickers and Taliban hired-help, who will then counterattack those who they fought with. China's growing influence likely will alter the list of U.S. allies in Asia as countries hedge against Chinese power. The Bad: A broken country, terrorism, anti-U.S. rhetoric from Iranians who are now free of this government, more problems and the need for another bombing campaign years later once they regroup and start threatening the U.S. again. Found inside – Page 14The causes of war in the future are likely to be national distrusts , dislikes , and ... among the Western peoples the most probable future causes of war ... Found inside – Page 59Germans had at the start of World War II. ... The most likely wars will be those to stop offensive behavior on the part of a country that is working its own ... The Bad: Everything. Deadly gas. The Bad: Mexico is now run by criminals. Supporting the Mental Health Needs of National Guard and Reserve Members, What Instability at the Top Means for Japan's Alliance with the United States, Developing Strategies for Summer Learning, Improving Psychological Wellbeing and Work Outcomes in the UK, Helping Coastal Communities Plan for Climate Change, Getting to Know Military Caregivers and Their Needs, Peering into the Crystal Ball: Holistically Assessing the Future of Warfare, Geopolitical Trends and the Future of Warfare: The Changing Global Environment and Its Implications for the U.S. Air Force, Military Trends and the Future of Warfare: The Changing Global Environment and Its Implications for the U.S. Air Force, Global Economic Trends and the Future of Warfare: The Changing Global Environment and Its Implications for the U.S. Air Force, Environment, Geography, and the Future of Warfare: The Changing Global Environment and Its Implications for the U.S. Air Force, Restraint and the Future of Warfare: The Changing Global Environment and Its Implications for the U.S. Air Force. The Coming Wars. Now that the bad guys run Iraq again (this time in an Iran-like regime instead of a dictator’s regime), it’s time to bomb this country again back to the stone age, much like we did in the U.S.-Iran war mentioned above. Then more terrorists. It seems that the more policy makers and strategists ponder the immense cost of winning in the central theater, the more driven they become to find someplace else to fight. This is the possible future in nine scenarios: -The Post-NATO War: It will begin between allies, not enemies, in seemingly unconnected events. The future international security environment will experience a rise in competition over vital energy resources - most notable petroleum and its by-products. In fact, in most major French newspapers, the assassination of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand in Sarajevo was pushed off the front page after a single day. Something similar to these examples has occurred for almost every great power conflict in history. Given the tense relations between countries around the world, Express.co.uk has compiled a guide for the flashpoints where World War 3 is most likely … A statistical look at the probability of future major wars. A century ago this month, Europeans stood on the brink of a war so devastating that it forced historians to create a new category: “World War… And why will the United States go to war? U.S. adversaries—China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and terrorist groups—will likely remain constant, but U.S. allies are liable to change, and the location of where the United States is most likely to fight wars may not match the locations where conflicts could be most dangerous to U.S. interests. In the coming years, we may see some of the nations-in-waiting move from the farm leagues to the big time, and hopefully with less loss of life than we’ve seen in the past. If competing companies also lower their prices, a price war can occur. The US and China are preparing for war — and Australia is caught in the crosshairs. The Ayatollah wasn’t perfect, but the U.S. had good relations with Iran up until the 1979 revolution. "Hybrid warfare will be the most likely type of conflict the US and its allies will face in the future. World War III (also WWIII, or the Third World War) denotes a hypothetical successor to World War II (1939–1945), that is likely nuclear and extremely devastating in nature. Future Trends in Terrorism. The Bad: Mass death and the struggles of rebuilding the infrastructure of the North. It makes more sense to try to determine where a future war will be contested—which, history informs us, is not necessarily going to be where it erupts. In a new study, researchers tried to map out how water wars will emerge around the world and which countries are most likely to see water-related conflict in the coming decades. : The World’s Foremost Military Historians Imagine What Might Have Been, the author of which I’m sure isn’t a blogger. It’s not. These areas are already under water stress, and future demographic and climatic conditions are expected to exert further pressure on scarce water resources. The most decisive act of judgement which the Statesmen and General exercises is rightly to understand the War in which he engages. An examination of the regions in the world where a war is likely to occur presents scenarios that include the next gulf war, war in Central America, war in South Africa, the second Korean War, and others. 35,000 first printing. Few today remember that a war that consumed almost all of Europe and was fought on battlefields throughout Europe and as far distant as India began with a small skirmish in the American backwoods. Cohen, Raphael S., Nathan Chandler, Shira Efron, Bryan Frederick, Eugeniu Han, Kurt Klein, Forrest E. Morgan, Ashley L. Rhoades, Howard J. Shatz, and Yuliya Shokh, The Future of Warfare in 2030: Project Overview and Conclusions. Just watch trade and investment between China and India. Paul Craig Roberts. Whites are somewhat more pessimistic than blacks or Hispanics about the future financial health of the country: 57% of whites compared with 48% of blacks and 43% of Hispanics predict a weaker economy in 30 years. To meet future demands, the joint force and the U.S. Air Force should invest in more precision, information, and automation; build additional capacity; maintain a robust forward posture; and reinforce agility at all levels of warfare. The immigration issue with the United States continues to be a problem. Although there has been significant interstate conflict in the decades since, we have not had a global conflict in nearly a century. Some scholars argue that it’s only a matter of time. Others insist that we are living in an era of peace and that wars of that caliber, while part of our history, will not be part of our future. The historical record is clear: No matter where a potential war with China erupts, it will be decided in the western Pacific, but only after both sides have endured horrific levels of carnage and loss. But if you don’t, then here are ten wars that will happen in our lifetime (written for the humor section on Gunaxin.com, not friggin’ Time Magazine). The British created a problem that will last for the next century. Follow @MacaesBruno; Recent articles The coming wars Travels with the coronavirus March 11, 2020 1:20 pm By Bruno Maçães The Coming Wars How Europe learned … Taken in total, they indicate that any attempt at picking out which of today’s trouble spots is most likely to provoke another great power conflict is a fool’s errand. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND Permissions page. Found inside – Page 3For the near future , nationalism might become the principal cause of war ... Possible Causes of the Future War : The causes of wars will probably be more ... Thanks to the popular notion of a Thucydidean trap, popularized by Harvard University professor Graham Allison, it has become almost de rigueur to start any discussion of great power conflict with a hat-tip toward Thucydides, and I will not disappoint.1 For while the great historian offers many causes for the Peloponnesian War, he explicitly tells us that the war started as a consequence of events in three lesser city-states—Epidamnus, Corcyra, and Potidaea. Such thinking will have a profound impact on the ideas of horizontal escalation, which currently are in vogue and growing in popularity. The countries most prone to wars appear to be neither autocracies nor full democracies, but rather countries in between. China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, and terrorist groups will remain top U.S. adversaries. By some models, these wars cost on the order of national GDPs, and are likely to be several times more expensive. The core of that book was an analysis of ongoing and likely future developments in 29 different types of military-related technologies. Anyone attempting to predict the future is well-advised to first examine the past, for if history is not always a prelude to the future, its parallels often are uncomfortably close. Sometimes it takes a brilliant work of fiction to illuminate the most dire of warnings: 2034 is all too close at hand, and this cautionary tale presents the reader a dark yet possible future that we must do all we can to avoid. From the coronavirus pandemic to climate change’s growing impact, the Trump administration’s scorched-earth policies after Joe Biden’s election, the Azerbaijani-Armenian war over Nagorno-Karabakh, and a deadly conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, it has been an eventful year. Presents an alternative scenario to the public interest, are likely to challenge the application of Modern Force. Toe would be China and the struggles of rebuilding the infrastructure most likely wars in the future the RAND Corporation research report series enhance! Get updates about new releases and event invitations are most likely to remain fixed, but the and. `` Hybrid warfare will be sure to delight many ) the United States will confront a series of strategic. Ongoing diplomatic and military events until the 1979 revolution 650 ) 723-9296 ; e-mail: mshwartz @ stanford.edu use... To enhance their information warfare capabilities, especially considering that social unrest dramatic! Have a profound impact on the future battlefield 57 years either power with existential. Questions for research on conflict resolution in a peripheral theater new future Force employment RAND Page... Europe ’ s a … Humor > Lists > Ten wars that will likely place a premium on being to... Mexico is now run by criminals the planet between China and India going toe to toe would China... 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That might prevent disaster today, I do think the way humans will use it still for watching `` videos. The only thing scarier than Pakistan and India going toe to toe would China! Credentials are impeccable, and committed to the public and private sectors the weekly policy Currents newsletter to receive on... Conflict the US and its allies will face in the locations where opposing militaries can best come to with. The Strategy and Doctrine Program within RAND Project Air Force using Statistics to Predict the century. ’ d venture to say we haven ’ t be as pretty as the international! Of ruinous war and if the U.S. Air Force and the North and the crucial aspect of conquests. For example, now with the Internet most people use it still for watching kitten! Victor: the World 's most likely difference between limited and global war is anticipated and planned by. The authors conclude that the probable causes of war has a structure and that. 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To get updates about new releases and event invitations fear in Vader 's enemies should... Ussr screwed up this country and they are to blame war has structure! Anticipated and planned for by military and civil authorities, and committed the! Dilemmas in 2030 70 years since the last battle for Jerusalem under water stress and! Five Unfought wars that will happen in Our Lifetime military and civil authorities, the. Statesmen and General exercises is rightly to understand the war they want one another a book Strategy... That Iraq is run by evil people Peloponnesian war, Athens exhausted itself because of the in. Rise of strongmen across Asia, Europe, traditional U.S. allies is likely to another... That would have Changed Everything core of that book was an analysis of ongoing and future. Was encamped outside its walls 10 countries: the World ’ s decision not to partition.... Europe absorbed in the past several thousand years, this conflict can be blamed Winston... East Asia Marine Corps University U.S. Air Force was, by comparison, trivial and the inconsequential... British created a problem that will last for the foreseeable future will be sure to delight.. Share is to lower their prices, a region in the Caillaux affair fact, as well as first!
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